|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]陈高伟,常向荣△,陈俊英.基于仓室SIR模型与Gauss函数的新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情分析*[J].生物医学工程研究,2020,04:369-372.
 CHEN Gaowei,CHANG Xiangrong,CHEN Junying.Analysis of COVID19 based on SIR model and Gaussian function[J].Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research,2020,04:369-372.
点击复制

基于仓室SIR模型与Gauss函数的新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情分析*(PDF)

《生物医学工程研究》[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

期数:
2020年04期
页码:
369-372
栏目:
出版日期:
2020-12-25

文章信息/Info

Title:
Analysis of COVID19 based on SIR model and Gaussian function
文章编号:
1672-6278(2020)04-0369-04
作者:
陈高伟常向荣△陈俊英
西南交通大学材料科学与工程学院,四川 成都 610031
Author(s):
CHEN Gaowei CHANG Xiangrong CHEN Junying
School of Materials Science and Engineering,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,China
关键词:
新型冠状病毒肺炎SIR模型Gauss函数基本再生数有效再生数
Keywords:
COVID-19SIR modelGaussian functionBasic reproduction numberEffective reproduction number
分类号:
R318
DOI:
10.19529/j.cnki.1672-6278.2020.04.09
文献标识码:
A
摘要:
本研究对传统仓室SIR模型进行改进,引入Gauss函数模拟COVID-19疫情的日传染率、日隔离率变化情况。采用Runge-Kutta算法有效拟合了湖北地区的疫情发展情况,依此推测出COVID-19的基本再生数R0=2.4817,有效再生数Re=0.9912,验证了COVID-19的高传染性。拟合结果证明,Gauss函数极为有效地反映感染率、确诊率的实际变化情况。因此,通过数学模型分析疫情关键参数对防控具有指导意义。
Abstract:
We improved the SIR model of traditional warehouse and introduced Gaussian function to simulate the daily infection rate and diagnosis rate of COVID-19.The RungeKutta algorithm was used to fit the epidemic situation in Hubei.The basic regeneration number of COVID-19 was induced as R0 = 2.4817 and the effective regeneration number Re = 0.9912, which verified the high infectivity of COVID-19.The fitting results showed that Gauss function was very effective in reflecting the actual changes of infection rate and diagnosis rate.So it is of great referential importance for the current epidemic prevention through mathematical model to analyze the key parameters of epidemic situation.

参考文献/References

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
(收稿日期:2020-06-09)四川省2018-2020年高等教育人才培养质量和教学改革项目(JG2018122);新工科背景下生医专业创新人才培养与支撑体系的建设(20201021);西南交通大学"抗击新型冠状病毒"应急科研专项。△通信作者Email:changxiangrong@swjtu.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 2021-02-07